2022 Oscars Preview (and Reader Contest!)

Predictions, upsets, and how we would rank the Best Picture nominees

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Mar 25, 2022

Oscar night is almost upon us! Before Sunday, we are doing all we can to get you ready with an Academy Awards preview in today’s newsletter. Drew and Billy will give out predictions for the major categories, potential upset picks, and rank the Best Picture nominees.

In case you missed it, we put together an Oscar nominees streaming guide earlier this week so that you can know where to watch the contenders available on streaming platforms. Last night, we also had a live conversation on Spotify Greenroom previewing the Oscars by talking through storylines and what to watch for on Sunday night. It was a lot of fun. You can listen to that here.

Finally, don’t forget to join our DYLA Oscars Prediction Contest! If you guess the most winners right, you’ll get a shoutout in next week’s newsletter. Could there be a better prize than that?!

DYLA Oscars Prediction Contest

Prediction Time

BEST PICTURE

Drew: CODA
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog was the Best Picture frontrunner for months until CODA crashed the party, taking home top honors at the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild. Although it’s a smaller Sundance charmer with only three Oscar nominations to The Power of the Dog’s pack-leading 12 nods, there seems to be an emotional surge for CODA right now. It looks like it’s a coin flip between the two, so I’ll go with the one with more momentum. However, I think I’ve been wrong predicting Best Picture the last four or five years in a row, so please don’t bet the house on my pick here.

Billy: The Power of the Dog
Who Should Win: West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR

Drew: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

In one of the easiest calls of the night, Jane Campion will become only the third woman to win Best Director. She’s a modern master who is plenty deserving of this award, but I’d love to see the great Paul Thomas Anderson finally win an Oscar. Maybe he can get his due in another category.

Billy: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Who Should Win: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

BEST ACTOR

Drew: Will Smith (King Richard)
Who Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

It sure seems like Will Smith will win his first Oscar on Sunday. He’s been scooping up Best Actor trophies for the entire awards season for his portrayal of Venus and Serena Williams’ father, Richard. While I do think King Richard is one of Smith’s best performances, Benedict Cumberbatch really impressed me playing against-type as a rancher with a secret in The Power of the Dog.

Billy: Will Smith (King Richard)
Who Should Win: Will Smith

BEST ACTRESS

Drew: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

This is the only acting category that feels uncertain this year. Chastain and Kristen Stewart are the only two nominees of the five that haven’t won an Oscar before. While I wouldn’t be stunned if any of the five pulled off a win, Chastain feels like the most overdue. Plus, her film is the favorite to win in Makeup and Hairstyling, which would go hand-in-hand with her over-the-top character’s look in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Billy: Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Drew: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Who Should Win: Troy Kotsur

Kodi Smit-McPhee was the early favorite to win this category for The Power of the Dog, but Troy Kotsur rode the CODA wave to frontrunner status. Kotsur would become the first deaf man to win an acting Oscar, and I don’t see him losing at this point, especially because his lovable character has some key emotional moments in CODA.

Billy: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Who Should Win: Troy Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Drew: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Who Should Win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

I’m half-tempted to pick an upset here, since I’m sure there will be a couple surprises we don’t see coming at some point in the night. I’m just not sure who the dark horse would be. I’d love to see Dunst win for her complex work as a self-destructive woman under pressure. But DeBose is easily the favorite to pick up the same award that Rita Moreno won for playing the same character in the 1961 West Side Story.

Billy: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Who Should Win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Drew: Don’t Look Up
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza

This is a category that’s truly up in the air. With no clear favorite between Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Licorice Pizza, that could leave room for any of the five to take it. While this could be the only spot to honor the beloved Belfast (which has seven nominations), I’m thinking the Writers Guild winner Don’t Look Up could emerge as a controversial choice. Am I just trying to put the jinx on a movie I hated? I’ll let you decide.

Billy: Licorice Pizza
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Drew: CODA
Who Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Whoever wins Adapted Screenplay could be an early indicator of the eventual Best Picture winner, as this most likely comes down to CODA and The Power of the Dog. While I think the latter is the better film, CODA is not nominated for Best Director, where Campion is favored to win, which means they may be less inclined to hand her the trophy here too. It really just seems like voters enjoy giving CODA awards, so I think it will win all three it’s nominated for on Sunday night.

Billy: CODA
Who Should Win: Drive My Car

Here are three potential upsets that Drew and Billy were too scared to actually predict above. Look out for these dark horses on Oscar night!

Drew:

Flee takes down fan favorite Encanto in Best Animated Film
Dame Judi Dench (Belfast) comes out of nowhere to win Best Supporting Actress
King Richard shows much more strength than expected, winning Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, and Original Song

Billy:

Maggie Gyllenhaal/The Lost Daughter will win an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay
Dune will win Best Picture
Olivia Colman wins Best Actress for The Lost Daughter

The Lost Daughter feels like an industry favorite that has the backing of a deep family line of people in the industry. Could it sneak in some massive upsets this year?

DYLA Ranks the Best Picture Nominees