2023 Oscars Preview (and Ballot Contest!)

Predictions, potential upsets, and how we'd rank the Best Picture nominees

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Mar 10, 2023

It’s that time again! Oscars weekend has arrived, and we’re giddy to watch what happens on Sunday night at the 95th Academy Awards. On Wednesday night, we did an Oscars preview on Spotify Live where we talked through what the show might be like after The Slap last year, predictions and analysis of the major categories, and a few wins we would be happiest to see. Listen to the recording below.

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In today’s newsletter, we’re getting you as ready as possible for the Oscars with our official predictions, a couple upset possibilities, and our personal rankings of the Best Picture nominees. Read, enjoy, and share before the big night!

Here’s who we think will win in the eight major categories, as well as who we think should win. Also, make sure you join our Oscars Prediction Contest before Sunday night! The winners will receive a shoutout in next week’s newsletter!

DYLA Oscars Prediction Contest

BEST PICTURE

Drew: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

One of the unlikeliest films to ever win Best Picture will almost certainly happen on Sunday night. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a strange and wild ride, the opposite of “Oscar bait,” and the movie has ridden the wave to top prizes at most of the precursor awards before the Oscars. It really seems like support for this zany big-hearted multiverse story stretches across most of the Academy. While Everything Everywhere’s potential win is far from an Oscar travesty, The Banshees of Inisherin was my #1 film of 2022, so that would get my vote.

Billy: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: TÁR

These movies are similar in that I think these two will be the longest lasting in our memory. Everything Everywhere with its universality, humor, action, and touching story. And while its dominance has been nothing short of shocking, I don’t think it will make people tired of it, only enhance the legacy of what may be the movie of the 2020s. TÁR will be remembered because its themes will fit in any generation and direction by Todd Field will be admired/studied forever.

BEST DIRECTOR

Drew: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Should Win: Todd Field (TÁR)

The Daniels seem poised to be the rare duo to win Best Director for their imaginative and impressive achievement. However, if anyone could upset them, it’s probably a legend like Steven Spielberg, whose very personal The Fabelmans was an early frontrunner for this award before Kwan and Scheniert stormed the scene.

Billy: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Should Win: Todd Field (TÁR)

We’ll get more exciting later, I swear. The Daniels in my opinion did better work on Swiss Army Man, but no more exciting directing duo has announced themselves this way since the Coen brothers, maybe? Jury is still out on their future projects obviously, but the future for them is going to be thrilling to watch.

BEST ACTOR

Drew: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Who Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

As terrific as Colin Farrell is in Banshees, Oscar voters love to give Best Actor to a performance portraying a real-life person or an actor that underwent a transformation (physically or via prosthetics). Farrell fits neither of those, so will they go with Austin Butler as Elvis Presley or Brendan Fraser for playing a 600-pound recluse in The Whale? It’s a true toss-up, and while Fraser’s comeback narrative is strong, Butler’s film is a Best Picture nominee.

Billy: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Who Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Here is my case for the Oscars doing more of an MVP-type approach for the whole year rather than just one performance. Cause no one had a better year than Colin Farrell and no one gave a better performance than him. Farrell finally got his first nomination and he will get his win… just not this year. Let Fraser finish his comeback.

BEST ACTRESS

Drew: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

I’ve gone back and forth a dozen times trying to choose between Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. I loved Yeoh’s performance, and she is fresh off a win in this category at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. On the other hand, Blanchett is a god-tier actress who I think gave the performance of the year in this category or any other. I’ll wager that Academy members, who tend to be more highbrow than SAG voters, will end up crowning Blanchett once again.

Billy: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Our tightest race is in this category and both possible winners will be fine by me. Yeoh and Cate Blanchett are absolute titans in this industry. Yeoh gets the edge for me here because of the emotional effectiveness of her performance and the physicality she exemplified throughout. It’s easy to look past amazing performances in action movies. Don’t miss it here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Drew: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

This should be the lock of the night. Ke Huy Quan has an industry comeback story for the ages and he’s outstanding in Everything Everywhere. Expect him to give a rousing and emotional speech for what is one of the show’s first awards handed out.

Billy: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Has a sweeter man ever won an Oscar? I mean my goodness every speech he has given already hits you right in the heart strings. Just like how he did in Everything Everywhere. He brilliantly plays a man who is clearly grasping at the last possible thread of a happy life. And the energy to hold on and fight is slipping away. Ke Huy Quan so clearly communicates all of that and when things begin to turn around the excitement felt is unmatched from an experience this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Drew: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Who Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

This is the most wide open of the acting races. Without a clear frontrunner, any of the five nominated could conceivably take the prize. The betting odds slightly favor Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, but I do wonder if some Academy members will bristle at giving an acting Oscar to a Marvel movie. Bassett would be a worthy winner, but I’m thinking this is the one place that they might reward Banshees, which was tied for the second-most nominations.

Billy: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Who Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

We have two potential legacy winners here. Angela Bassett vs. Jamie Lee Curtis. The former is powerful and the emotional center of a movie that had to on-the-fly tell a different story than it wanted to. She handled that opportunity with grace, poise, and intensity. With Jamie Lee Curtis I’m not quite sure how we got here. She’s not good in Everything Everywhere and would be a strange legacy Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Drew: Women Talking
Who Should Win: Women Talking

Only three of the five nominees here are in the Best Picture race, so that leaves out Living and Glass Onion (which would be a very worthy winner in this category). Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are more action-centric movies, so I’m predicting the Best Picture nominee that has its screenplay front and center, Women Talking. It’s also just a really smart and nuanced take on tough subject matter.

Billy: Women Talking
Who Should Win: Women Talking

It’s not “Women Are Talking” Mark… It’s maybe the most likely winner of this category. Definitely our most wide open category of the night. All of them could win and not much has indicated a favorite, but Women Talking has the hallmarks of a winner, since it’s an ensemble cast giving great performances. A stage-like location that completely relies on dialogue and emotion. Ripe for a win and I think it will get it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Drew: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

This is another very close race between two of the most nominated films at this year’s Oscars. Martin McDonagh is hugely respected as a screenwriter, so it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock if Banshees won. However, my hunch is that voters will see that word “Original” in the category name and lean toward the film that has the more sui generis storytelling in Everything Everywhere.

Billy: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: TÁR

Going into writing about all of this I didn’t expect to be tired writing out Everything Everywhere All at Once so many times. But here we are… but I must show strength and respect for our unstoppable force. What else is there to say? Director is going to win, some of the acting categories are going to win, probable Best Picture winner, and now the screenplay. The structure that starts here was beautifully executed on screen and the details for what is on the page feels perfectly realized.

Upset Alert!

Here are three potential upsets that Drew and Billy were too scared to actually predict above. Look out for these dark horses on Oscar night!

Drew:

Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) comes out of nowhere to win Best Supporting Actress
Close beats out All Quiet on the Western Front in Best International Feature
Top Gun: Maverick (unfortunately!) goes home empty-handed

Billy:

Top Gun: Maverick for Best Adapted Screenplay
Kerry Condon for Best Supporting Actress
Everything Everywhere wins everything it is nominated for except Best Picture

DYLA Ranks the Best Picture Nominees