2024 Oscars Preview (and Ballot Prediction Contest!)

Predictions, upsets, and who we want to win on Sunday night

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Mar 08, 2024

Oscars weekend is finally here! This means it’s time for our annual Oscars preview before the big night. In today’s newsletter, you’ll find our breakdown of the eight major categories with our prediction and who we think should win. Then, we give you a few upset possibilities before we each rank the Best Picture nominees. Over on the podcast, we did a full Oscars preview episode, so you’ll know what to expect on Sunday night.

Oscars Preview Podcast

Prediction Time

Here’s who we think will win in the eight major categories, as well as who we think should win. Also, make sure you join our Oscars Prediction Contest before Sunday night! The winners will receive a shoutout in next week’s newsletter and podcast!

DYLA Oscars Prediction Contest

BEST PICTURE

Drew: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

An Oscars juggernaut the likes we haven’t seen in awhile, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is poised to run away with Best Picture on Sunday night. While this year’s crop of 10 nominees is unusually strong, Oppenheimer has the monumental subject matter, stacked cast, and dazzling craft to win the big prize. While I loved Nolan’s astonishing biopic, Killers of the Flower Moon was the powerful historical drama from 2023 that I responded to the most.

Billy: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Past Lives

No movie this year felt so big. The feelings that come through the screen in Past Lives mixed with how New York is portrayed left me mesmerized. You see what I did there? You thought I was gonna say Oppenheimer felt so big! Anyways, Celine Song struck all the right notes with me and made an immediate indie classic

BEST DIRECTOR

Drew: Christopher Nolan
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese

Big-budget directors don’t often end up winning Best Director, but Nolan has the auteur credibility, box office bonafides, and industry respect to be the exception. Surprisingly, Oppenheimer is only his second nomination in this category (after 2017’s Dunkirk), but there’s a sense that he’s plenty due. Amid an impressive group of five directors this year, expect Nolan to be on stage holding the Oscar.

Billy: Christopher Nolan
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese

What we get here is a potential passing of the torch situation. Maybe it would be more fitting if Spielberg were nominated, but Nolan is finally getting his… most likely. Marty doesn’t need any more accolades, but Killers of the Flower Moon is Marty’s masterwork of his Silence, The Irishman, and KOTFM eta. You can see his passion throughout and his handling of being a white man directing a story like this was done with class. It’s not Marty’s best, but one of his most impressive and profound.

BEST ACTOR

Drew: Cillian Murphy
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy

For his titanic work anchoring the likely Best Picture winner, Cillian Murphy is the favorite to take Best Actor. However, don’t be shocked if The Holdovers’ Paul Giamatti upsets in this category. He’s another well-known character actor who’s finally hitting the Oscars limelight.

Billy: Cillian Murphy
Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti

Cillian has taken the lead on this one it seems, but my heart is with Paul. No race in recent Oscars history has made me more invested. Not because this race is all that close, but because I love both of these actors so much. And this may be both of their only shots to win. Character actors of this prestige normally only get this close once. Especially in the lead actor category. Give it to them both!

BEST ACTRESS

Drew: Lily Gladstone
Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone

In what is the night’s true major toss-up, Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are neck-and-neck for Best Actress. I’ve flip-flopped several times on who will win in the end, but I’m going with Gladstone’s quiet and empathetic performance in Killers of the Flower Moon. Despite Emma Stone’s impressive acting pyrotechnics in Poor Things, Gladstone’s win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the historic nature as the first Native American to win this category might be what puts her over the top.

Billy: Emma Stone
Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone

On the podcast I said Gladstone would win and I’ve already changed my mind! Stone is gonna win I think. When a comedy performance hits like this it can be a juggernaut, and Emma Stone brings an instant classic performance, if she wins she will be in the rare company of actresses who have won multiple Oscars, and those are the reasons I think she wins. But Lily Gladstone should win. No scene this year has been as powerful as the first scene between Leo and Lily. Such an announcement for a role that doesn’t have a high percentage of screen time. And that power should matter and push her towards the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Drew: Robert Downey Jr.
Who Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Among an excellent group of nominees, it’s Robert Downey Jr. that has dominated Best Supporting Actor all season long. Playing against type in Oppenheimer, RDJ gives one of his best performances, which will see him beat out Ryan Gosling’s hilarious Ken and Robert De Niro’s sneaky murderous villain from Killers of the Flower Moon.

Billy: Robert Downey Jr.
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling

RDJ gave my favorite performance in Oppenheimer and he deserves it. This isn’t just an “it’s time” Oscar for Downey. He deserves it, but the best performance this year is Ryan Gosling. A character and whole movie that has no business being this good. Gosling fully commits and will have a longer lasting legacy with this performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Drew: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

This category has been sewn up for a long time. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s honest and heartfelt performance from The Holdovers will see her win easily in what could be that movie’s only prize of the night.

Billy: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

There were some amazing supporting performances this year and almost all the wrong ones were nominated for this category, except for Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She is a powerhouse amongst her amazing co-stars. Funny, powerful, and heartfelt in such a vulnerable way. She has won literally everything this season and it ends here with another victory. What a run.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Drew: American Fiction
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer

If you’re predicting a full Oppenheimer sweep, then look for it to take Best Adapted Screenplay as well, but I think this is one of the few categories where voters may spread the wealth. American Fiction, a story about a writer, has won many precursor awards. And Barbie’s Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, two of the better screenwriters around, could be rewarded here for their huge accomplishment.

Billy: American Fiction
Who Should Win: Barbie

Barbie had the tough task to live up to the bill of “one of the best scripts ever made” and it lived up to it. It is rare for a blockbuster like this to attempt to pack such a powerful message in the middle of its movie. Does it feel weird at times seeing that attempt in a Barbie movie? Sure! But Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach make all of those moments mix wonderfully within all of the hilarious bits. What a feat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Drew: Anatomy of a Fall
Who Should Win: Past Lives

The French courtroom drama Anatomy of a Fall is a slight favorite to win this category, almost as a consolation prize to director Justine Triet, who almost certainly won’t win in Best Director. However, Past Lives and The Holdovers still have to be considered dark horses. I’d vote for the exquisitely realized Past Lives, despite the strength of the writing in The Holdovers and May December.

Billy: Anatomy of a Fall
Who Should Win: May December

This is where I get to talk about May December again! No movie captivated me quite like May December this year and it is irresponsible to say it is because of just one thing, but the screenplay may be what made this movie so memorable. Director Todd Haynes and three main performers in Julianne Moore, Natalie Portman, and Charles Melton knew exactly what to do with this movie. And I have to think it is because the screenplay was so well crafted.

Here are a couple potential upsets that Drew and Billy were too scared to actually predict above. Look out for these dark horses on Oscar night!

Drew:

Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) shocks the world with a Best Actress win
John Williams wins Best Original Score for his final work in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Barbie wins more awards than expected, taking home four Oscars

Billy:

The Zone of Interest with a Best Picture win. I think this is the only movie that has a chance to get the #1 spot on a lot of Oscar ballots. There is no real upset potential here, but I’m calling my shot.
Emily Blunt shocks the world with a completely undeserved Supporting Actress win. This would be some Oscar shit wouldn’t it? She is a beloved actor and people love Oppy.
Godzilla Minus One with a Visual Effects Oscar!

DYLA Ranks the Best Picture Nominees