Oscars Reactions and Way-Too-Early 2024 Predictions

Who will be an Oscar contender one year from now? We look into our crystal ball to tell you.

We hope you enjoyed the Oscars ceremony on Sunday! Immediately after the show, we recorded our reactions for a discussion on Spotify Live. We talked about Everything Everywhere All at Once’s dominance, the best speeches of the night, and which of the nominated movies would have the best legacy years from now. Listen to our discussion below!

Thank you to everyone that entered our Oscars Prediction Contest! The winner with a perfect score of 8 for 8 was… James K Chambliss! Congrats, James! The average score was 4.53 out of 8.

To cure our Oscars hangover, we are making predictions for next year’s Academy Awards in the newsletter today. Is it absurdly early to do this for an awards show that’s almost a year away? Of course! But that’s what makes it fun. We took turns drafting the 2023 films that we think will be Oscar contenders this time next year. Maybe we’ll even revisit our picks early in 2024 to see who did better. And with the first pick… Billy Rock. 

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Way-Too-Early 2024 Oscars Predictions

ROUND 1

Billy: Killers of the Flower Moon

It is a Marty epic and it will be here. If The Irishman is any indicator it will be nominated for a ton of Oscar’s, but not win anything. There are things going for it and going against it. Going for it is that Killers of the Flower Moon has Leo as the lead, an up and coming actress in Lily Gladstone that could have a breakout performance, and most recent Best Actor winner Brendan Fraser. Against it is that this feels somewhat akin to a Silence type Scorsese movie. Which are equally great, but not nearly as Oscar friendly.

Drew: Oppenheimer

Most years during awards season there’s a spot or two in the Best Picture conversation for a massive summer release, and I’m betting the Academy goes for Christopher Nolan’s epic about scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer, known as the “father of the atomic bomb.” In addition to being an IMAX-sized historical drama seemingly about a man grappling with what he’s unleashed on the world, Oppenheimer features a typically A-list Nolan cast, including a leading role for Cillian Murphy, who could nab his first Oscar nomination. 

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ROUND 2

Billy: The Holdovers

Alexander Payne has a little bit to prove with this one. Once an Oscar darling, he had a massive miss with his most recent film Downsizing. He seemingly has lost his fastball, but he is teaming up with Paul Giamatti again for this years movie The Holdovers. And the movie has a weirdly similar character to Giamatti’s hilariously angry wine snob in Sideways.

“Nobody likes teacher Paul Hunham (Giamatti) -- not his students, not his fellow faculty, not the headmaster, who all find his pomposity and rigidity exasperating…”

This quick description makes me think that Payne is going back to some of his roots in creating unlikeable characters that I want to hang with because the surrounding atmosphere is lived in and realistic.

Drew: Maestro

Bradley Cooper is finally back in the director’s chair for Maestro, his upcoming Netflix film based on the life of conductor Leonard Bernstein. After A Star Is Born’s strong presence at the Oscars a few years ago (except for the Academy snubbing him for Best Director), Cooper is poised to be in the mix again since he’s starring as Bernstein opposite co-star Carey Mulligan. There could be concern that the Academy might not go for another film about a larger-than-life conductor and composer so soon after TAR, but Maestro has the backing of both Netflix and a producing team of Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, and Todd Phillips. Not a bad support system.

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ROUND 3

Billy: Barbie

I was hesitant drafting Barbie because it feels too ripe for a big Oscar run with the hype it is getting. Greta Gerwig has been nominated for her first two movies Lady Bird and Little Women (still no Best Picture nomination), the two leads are some of the Oscars favorite to nominate, and the screenplay has been touted as one of the best people have ever seen. I don’t think this will be Top Gun: Maverick in its box office success, but I think that this will be a box office hit and if this years Oscar’s are any type of indicator, Box office hits will be among the nominees.

Drew: Dune: Part Two

The first Dune was nominated for 10 Oscars and won six of them, so the conclusion to the Dune story will be ready to run it back when it comes out in November. Director Denis Villeneuve has even brought in young movie stars like Florence Pugh and Austin Butler to add more excitement to his epic sci-fi adaptation. Will the Academy be ready for more adventures on Arrakis?

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ROUND 4

Billy: The Killer

I was able to get Martin Scorsese and David Fincher in this draft. Billy is happy. To Fincher’s continued detriment, this man loves to pick projects that aren’t obviously Oscar friendly. His skill and mastery has allowed him to breakthrough with nominations with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, and Mank. All three were winners in some capacity and The Social Network not winning Best Picture makes it almost for certain that Fincher and his movie will get a makeup Oscar one day. The Killer stars Michael Fassbender as an assassin who gains a conscious and is trying to get out of the game. With Barry wrapping up this year I am ready for another story about a hitman that gains a conscious.

Drew: May December

Director Todd Haynes has only been nominated for one Oscar (Far from Heaven), but his films usually yield acting nominations and a group of devotees that adore his swoony (and slippery) dramas. May December, which (*fingers crossed*) will be out in 2023, is about a notorious tabloid couple whose relationship begins to crack when an actress arrives to do research for a film about their past. It stars Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman, and it sounds like it might be time for the Academy to fully embrace a Haynes project. 

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ROUND 5

Billy: The Bikeriders

This is a “one for me” pick. Jeff Nichols is one my favorite directors working today and creates movies that I am surprised haven’t caught on with a Best Picture nomination. His movies generally star a big to decent sized name and are easily accessible for a wide array of audiences. The Bikeriders has his most star studded cast yet and is a crime story. Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Jodie Comer, Michael Shannon (he always shows up in Nichols movies), Boyd Holbrook, and Mike Faist. This ensemble cast with veterans and young star actors in a crime drama make me think if released at the right time and catches some buzz could be a dark horse to sneak in as the 10th nomination. Remember this moment when it happens.

Drew: Napoleon 

You’d think a Ridley Scott biopic of Napoleon Bonaparte with Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby on board would be a lock for a Best Picture nod. However, the 85-year-old director’s movies have been more miss than hit at the Oscars lately – The Martian was the last time he had a film in the race – and Napoleon will be released by Apple, which hasn’t had many movies of this size and scope. I’m still willing to bet that the talent and subject matter will have this one in the Oscar hunt.