The Do You Like Apples Oscars Preview
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The biggest night of the year for movies is just about here! On Sunday at 8 p.m. ET, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hand out a bunch of golden trophies to some very happy people (except for Joaquin Phoenix, who never really looks happy). We love the Oscars dearly at DYLA, so of course we had to drop an Oscars preview on you. Read on for our official predictions, a few upset picks, and more.
In case you missed it on Wednesday, we sent out our Oscars streaming guide. This is where you can find the places to stream 16 of this year’s Oscar-nominated films. If you start now, you can finish before Sunday night!
Prediction Time
My biggest worry for this year’s Oscars is that it will be predictable. Almost all of the main categories have heavy favorites, which could lead to an uneventful ceremony where all the expected winners’ names get called. Let’s hope for a few surprises on Sunday night.
You can see our predictions for what we think will happen below, but we want you to get involved as well! Click this link to make your own predictions for the major categories in the Do You Like Apples Oscars Prediction Contest. We’ll announce the winners in next week’s newsletter!
Best Picture
Drew: 1917
Who Should Win: Parasite
This is an incredible crop of Best Picture nominees, but it has come down to two major contenders for the top prize. 1917, a breathtaking World War I drama, came out late in the year and immediately started winning awards. Parasite, a jaw-dropping South Korean thriller, has garnered universal praise and could be poised for a big night. No foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture, mostly because there is already a Best Foreign Film award at the Oscars, but make no mistake, people LOVE Parasite. There’s been a ton of passion around it since audiences first got to see it. 1917, on the other hand, is the more classic “Oscar movie,” even though it has also blown people away. In the end, I’m predicting 1917 because there will be other opportunities to reward Parasite, and Oscar voters usually like to spread the wealth. However, nothing would make me happier than a surprise Parasite victory.
Billy: 1917
Who Should Win: Parasite
“Choose Parasite! Choose Parasite!” My mind and body wants Parasite to win everything this year. Almost every category deserves to have Parasite represented in it. This is an odd year where 1917 winning would not make me angry. It is a really good film, but the Oscar for Best Picture is so predictable. 1917 allows the technical mastery to fade into the background because the story is great. It is a deserving winner in most years. Just not this one.
Best Director
Drew: Sam Mendes (1917)
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Best Picture and Best Director have split five of the last seven years, so it wouldn’t be crazy if it happened this year when there are two serious frontrunners: 1917’s Sam Mendes and Parasite’s Bong Joon-ho. While I think it’s more likely Parasite wins Best Picture than Director, I could see the Academy going with Bong since Mendes has already won for American Beauty in 2000. That said, the Directors Guild chose Mendes, and they are almost never wrong about the Best Director Oscar, so I’m going with 1917 here.
Billy: Sam Mendes (1917)
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
The directing is the most notable aspect of 1917, so much was needed to make this work. What takes away from the greatness of 1917 is the common story. Most era of war movies have told this type of movie before. Mendes knew that going in and because of the stories from his grandfather he was able to tell a common story in a way that has rarely been seen. Mendes will win for a better effort than American Beauty.
Best Actress
Drew: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Who Should Win: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
I really wanted to go out on a limb with this one, guys. Zellweger is the huge favorite to win her second Oscar, and I would love to pick an upset here, but I just can’t see it. The Academy loves when you play a real-life person, bonus points if it’s a Hollywood figure. Zellweger as Judy Garland nails that, even if not many outside the Academy have seen the movie. My question is: Why do we need to give her another Oscar when so many great actresses (including some that were nominated!) haven’t won any?
Billy: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Who Should Win: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
The most predictable category for the movie that almost no one has seen, including myself. Biopic performances have become old for me. Especially for people that are so iconic like Judy Garland. There is a clear record of her mannerisms and troubles. That leads to a tough performance, but all the tools to create a great one. Renee probably deserves the win, but I hope there is an upset.
Best Actor
Drew: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Who Should Win: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
The lock-iest lock of the night is Phoenix winning this award. Despite Heath Ledger already winning an Oscar for the same character, Phoenix’s tour de force performance has been showered with praise by just about every voting body this awards season. He’s astonishing in the role, but I think we may look back and wonder why Adam Driver wasn’t more of a contender for his empathetic work in Marriage Story. At least we will get a fascinating speech from Phoenix. He’s liable to say anything up there.
Billy: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Who Should Win: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
UPSET ALERT: Probably my only upset for the top 8 categories. Banderas gives a tour de force performance, but we all know that does not always win at the Oscars. What do the Oscars love, though? A movie about movies. Pain and Glory follows Banderas’ character who is a director. This prediction is a long shot, but my love for this performance and movie gives me hope.
Best Supporting Actress
Drew: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Who Should Win: Florence Pugh (Little Women)
What’s not to love about Laura Dern? It’s always a delight to see her pop up in anything you’re watching, and that’s exactly why she will be taking home this award on Sunday night. The only other nominee I could see pulling off an upset would be Scarlett Johannson for Jojo Rabbit, but too many Academy voters will want to see Dern holding a trophy on stage.
Billy: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Who Should Win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
This is an “it’s time” Oscar. Not that she didn’t give a great performance. She is incredible in Marriage Story. Of all the attorney characters she gets the most to work with and is captivating throughout. Luckily for us, the Oscars will be giving an “it’s time” Oscar for an actually great performance. It is not always the case.
Best Supporting Actor
Drew: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Who Should Win: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Pitt has been charming the socks off people with his stand-up routine acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes, SAG, and elsewhere. And he will do it again at the Oscars. His character is super memorable in a movie that voters will want to reward since it isn’t winning Best Picture. He’s also the only nominee here that hasn’t already won an Oscar for acting.
Billy: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Who Should Win: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Pitt is the leading actor in this movie and no one can tell me otherwise. He’s the catalyst for the climax and brings in the most conflict. Regardless of what category he should be in, he deserves this one. There is time for an actor to kind of play an eccentric version of himself. It makes for a better movie sometimes and this is a scenario where without him it would not work as well.
Best Original Screenplay
Drew: Parasite
Who Should Win: Parasite
This is one of the true toss-up categories of the night. Quentin Tarantino has won two screenplay Oscars and certainly could win a third for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. However, I think this will be where voters will want to recognize Parasite and Bong Joon-ho for a wildly original film with an inventive structure. I’d be fine with either. Whoever wins this category should be seen as 1917’s biggest challenger for Best Picture.
Billy: Parasite
Who Should Win: Knives Out
Parasite, what a special movie. As an English-speaking dumbo it says something for a foreign language film to be obvious about how great the writing is. Sometimes the translation isn’t great and the context is lost in translation. Not Parasite. It allows the audience to keep track of the dialogue, visuals, and story supremely well.Let’s be honest, though. It’s not hard to watch foreign films. Get it together, Academy.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Drew: Little Women
Who Should Win: Little Women
Here’s a minor upset for you. Most are predicting Jojo Rabbit to take the prize after it won at the BAFTAs (the British Oscars, basically) and the Writers Guild awards last weekend. I’m leaning toward Greta Gerwig for Little Women, if only because she found a fresh and intelligent way to present a 150-year-old story with her adaptation. I’d love to see her get her due.
Billy: Jojo Rabbit
Who Should Win: The Irishman
The Academy seems to want this one. Director Taika Waititi is one of my favorite people in Hollywood right now. Supremely goofy while having a heart that shines through in all of his movies. Part of the reason why I think that this would be a fun win is because Taika is always entertaining and would have a great speech. Does he deserve it though? I’m not quite sure. The Irishman or Little Women winning here would be incredible.
International Feature
Drew: Parasite
Billy: Parasite
Documentary Feature
Drew: American Factory
Billy: American Factory
Animated Feature
Drew: Toy Story 4
Billy: Klaus
Production Design
Drew: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Billy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Editing
Drew: Ford v Ferrari
Billy: Ford v Ferrari
Cinematography
Drew: 1917
Billy: 1917
Visual Effects
Drew: 1917
Billy: 1917
Costume Design
Drew: Little Women
Billy: Little Women
Sound Mixing
Drew: 1917
Billy: 1917
Sound Editing
Drew: 1917
Billy: 1917
Original Song
Drew: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” - Rocketman
Billy: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” - Toy Story 4
Original Score
Drew: Joker
Billy: Joker
Makeup and Hairstyling
Drew: Joker
Billy: Bombshell
Live-Action Short Film
Drew: The Neighbors’ Window
Billy: Brotherhood
Animated Short Film
Drew: Hair Love
Billy: Hair Love
Documentary Short Subject
Drew: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Billy: St. Louis Superman
Upset Alert
Here are six potential upsets that we were too scared to actually predict above. Look out for these wild cards on Oscar night.
Billy:
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) upsetting Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) in Best Actor
Joker frustrating the world for Best Picture
Quentin Tarantino for Best Director, upsetting the two favorites with a deserving “it’s time” Oscar.
Drew:
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) upsetting Renee Zellweger (Judy) in Best Actress
Quentin Tarantino surprising in Best Director
Jojo Rabbit shocking the world for Best Picture
Top 10 Misses in Oscars History
As they will undoubtedly remind us on Sunday, the Academy often just gets it plain wrong. Here are the ten biggest misses in Oscar history.
Billy:
Spike Lee not nominated in Best Director for Do the Right Thing
Bob Fosse beat The Godfather’s Francis Ford Coppola for Best Director
The King’s Speech winning Best Picture over The Social Network
Kevin Costner (Dances with Wolves) beat Martin Scorsese (Goodfellas) for Best Director
Driving Miss Daisy winning Best Picture over Dead Poets Society and pretty much everything else
Drew:
Al Pacino not winning for either The Godfather or The Godfather II
Martin Scorsese not nominated in Best Director for Taxi Driver
The English Patient winning Best Picture over Fargo
In the Heat of the Night winning Best Picture over The Graduate and Bonnie and Clyde
2001: A Space Odyssey not nominated for Best Picture